THE LONG-RUN AND SHORT-RUN DYNAMICS OF PETROLEUM DOWNSTREAM DEREGULATION: AN ARDL APPROACH
Abdurrahman Bala Yusuf, Shuaibu Muhammed and Nitte Abner
Volume 1 Issue 1
Abstract
This paper investigates the application of ARDL Technique to determine “The long-run and short-run dynamics of petroleum downstream deregulation Spanning the period 1991-2014: Secondary data were used and econometrics models were analyzed through the application of Augmented Dickey Fuller in testing the stationarity of the time series. Based on the findings of the study, the results of the unit root indicate that the variables have mixed degree of integration I(0), I(1);The bound test cointegration procedure revealed the presence of long-run relationship among the variables. The study revealed that Importation of refined premium motor spirit (IPMS) grossly affects the petroleum GDP of the economy negatively both in short and long run; the study therefore recommends total deregulation of the downstream sector must be gradually and consistently pursued to deliver maximum result to all stakeholders and the nation. While that is being pursued, adequate infrastructure, especially refineries should be put in place. Keywords: Deregulation, Downstream, Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics, GDP
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