DEBT OR DEVELOPMENT? A POLICY ANALYSIS OF CHINESE INFRASTRUCTURE LOANS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA
Okusanya Adedoyin Opeyemi , Olatuyi Oluwaseun Grace , Adesina Julius Adenuga , Mudasiru Adebayo Muiliyu , Abdulgaffar Muhammad and Azubuike Christian Omogor
Volume 12 Issue 3
Abstract
Over the past two decades, China has emerged as Africa’s leading bilateral lender, financing large-scale infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While these investments have accelerated development in critical sectors, concerns persist over debt sustainability, transparency, and long-term economic vulnerability. This paper provides an empirical evaluation of Chinese infrastructure loans to selected African countries from 2000 to 2023. Using customized indices such as the Loan Productivity Ratio (LPR) and Debt Pressure Index (DPI) the study assesses the sectoral distribution, fiscal impact, and geopolitical undercurrents of Chinese lending. Findings reveal a mixed picture: while some countries exhibit high loan productivity and manageable debt levels, others show signs of growing debt distress. The paper concludes by offering policy insights for African governments and Chinese financiers to balance infrastructure-driven growth with prudent fiscal management. Keywords: Chinese Loans, Infrastructure Finance, Debt Sustainability, Africa-China Relations
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