IMPACT OF INFLATION ON YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MALE AND FEMALE YOUTHS
Nnanna P. Azu, Johnpaul S. Okafor,Hassan P. Abdullahi and Victor T. Okorie
Volume 11 Issue 1
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of inflation on youth unemployment in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023, focusing on gender-specific effects for male and female youths. Anchored on the Phillips Curve, the study explores both short-run and long-run dynamics of Autoregressive Distributed Lag. Results indicate that inflation significantly influences youth unemployment in the long run, with a 1% increase in inflation resulting in a 0.12% increase in total youth unemployment and a 0.22% increase in female youth unemployment. In contrast, the impact on male youth unemployment is negligible. Inflation does not significantly impact youth unemployment across all categories in the short run, suggesting that other macroeconomic factors dominate short-term labour market outcomes. The error correction terms (-0.77 for the total youth unemployment, -0.83 for the male youth unemployment model, and -0.50 for the female youth unemployment model) show a significant adjustment to equilibrium, with about 50–83% of deviations corrected annually. These findings highlight the disproportionate vulnerability of female youths to inflationary pressures. The study recommends inflation-targeting policies, gender-sensitive labour market reforms, and entrepreneurship support to mitigate the adverse effects of inflation on youth unemployment. Key Words: Inflation, Youth Unemployment, Female Youth Unemployment, Male Youth Unemployment, Nigeria
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